Since I did not correctly predict last year's Nobel Prize winners, my predictions for this year will look fairly similar to last year's.
1. Lars P. Hansen and/or Hal White. I had them first last year and it has been one additional year since the last econometrics selection.
2. Richard Thaler and/or Robert Schiller.
4. Gordon Tullock. Trendier choice than last year.
4. Paul Romer. I dropped him behind Tullock since Macro won last year.
My last minute predictions for the Nobel Prize in Economics. For more enlightened and informed commentary, see Greg
Mankiw and Tyler
Cowen.
1. Lars P. Hanse and/or Hal White. Econometrics has not been awarded in a while and the current economic conditions would suggest rewarding more theoretical economists.
2. Richard Thaler and/or Robert Schiller. These seem to be the favorites.
3. Paul Romer. Macroeconomics has not been awarded recently but given the short-run macroeconomy, they probably won't give it to most of the macroeconomist. Romer is of course known for growth theory, so I think they might go in this direction.
4. Gordon Tullock. Most people think he missed his chance, so I'm just being contrarian with this choice.
