Thursday, October 6, 2011

2011 Nobel Prize in Econ Preditions

Since I did not correctly predict last year's Nobel Prize winners, my predictions for this year will look fairly similar to last year's.

1. Lars P. Hansen and/or Hal White. I had them first last year and it has been one additional year since the last econometrics selection.

2. Richard Thaler and/or Robert Schiller.

4. Gordon Tullock. Trendier choice than last year.

4. Paul Romer. I dropped him behind Tullock since Macro won last year.


  1. I offer my view of what should happen: Robert Shiller gets the 2011 Prize, and American citizens are thereafter excluded from Prize-eligibility for the rest of the century. Keeping very instructive, simple asset price histories such as
    “Real Homes, Real Dow” at
    very-little-apparent to the people is condemnable deception by omission — done by the economics, and other, professions. (Of course, Shiller is the exception.)

  2. Any follow-up on this post perhaps?